RateProbability is a hub for comparing market-implied policy rate paths across major central banks. It shows what interest rate markets are pricing for upcoming policy meetings, both as the expected rate level after each meeting and as the implied amount of tightening or easing from today. These expectations can change quickly as economic data, central bank guidance, and financial conditions evolve.

Rather than going deep on one central bank, this page puts them side by side so you can see where markets are pricing hikes or cuts, how quickly those moves are expected, and how expectations differ across regions. For more detail on any one bank, open its page from the tabs above or click its row in the table.

What this page measures

How do rate expectations compare across the Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ and other central banks right now?

At their next meetings, markets price hikes from the Bank of Canada (80%, Oct 28), the RBA (56%, Nov 2) and the Bank of England (94%, Nov 5), while the Fed, ECB and BOJ are priced to hold. Over the next 12 months, pricing ranges from a net 109.2bp of hikes for the Bank of England to a net 23.1bp of hikes for the RBA.

The charts and table reflect market pricing, not a forecast: a snapshot of what tradable instruments imply about future policy, which can be wrong and will move as new information arrives.

Because central banks operate with different frameworks and policy instruments, comparisons are most useful for understanding direction and magnitude (for example, “markets price more easing here than there”) rather than precision to the basis point.

Up Next cards

The three cards at the top follow whichever bank decides next. Up Next names that bank with the date and time of its announcement, Pricing shows the chance of a move at that meeting and how many basis points are priced, and Current Rate shows its policy rate alongside its latest overnight reference rate. On mobile, tap the Pricing card to flip to that bank’s 12-month outlook.

Implied policy rate paths: Relative (Δ vs current)

The Relative chart shows the change from each bank’s current policy rate priced by each upcoming meeting, in basis points. Because it removes differences in starting levels, it’s the quickest way to see which central bank is priced to cut or hike more over a given horizon, and how the timing of those moves compares.

Implied policy rate paths: Level

The Level chart shows the implied policy rate after each upcoming meeting for each bank. It answers questions like: where is policy priced to be by mid-year, how far apart are two regions’ expected rates, and which bank is priced to have the highest or lowest rate over the next year? Step Line draws each path as flat steps between meetings, the way policy rates actually move.

Different central banks use different headline policy rates; some set a range, others a single administered rate. The chart uses one consistent policy rate for each bank (for the Fed, the midpoint of its target range) so the paths can be compared directly. Click a bank in either chart’s legend to show or hide it.

Interpreting the “Upcoming meetings” table

The table lists the next scheduled meeting for each central bank covered on the site, with the bank’s current policy rate and what’s priced for that meeting. Click any row to open that bank’s page.

Probability and Hike/Cut are best read together: they give the market-implied chance of a move of the selected step size at the next meeting, and its direction. Δ vs current (bps) is the total change priced from today into that meeting, answering “how many basis points of hikes or cuts are priced by then?” Implied Outcome shows HIKE or CUT when that probability is 50% or more, and HOLD otherwise. 12-Month Outlook (bps) is the net change priced through the last meeting within the next 12 months.

The Step menu sets the move size used for the probabilities (25bps by default). Step size matters because markets may be pricing larger moves, smaller adjustments, or a mix of outcomes across meetings, so a standard step is a consistent but approximate way to summarize pricing. Sort the table by date, by Δ, or by the 12-month figure, and use the globe icon next to the As of timestamp to show dates in your own time zone.

What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)

The probabilities on this site are market-implied: they’re derived from where rates trade, not from historical patterns, economic models, or any one forecast. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact or underreact to developments, or price scenarios that never occur.

The site focuses on scheduled meetings, but central banks can act between meetings in extraordinary circumstances. Pricing can also move on communication, guidance, and balance-sheet policy even when headline policy rates are unchanged.

Meeting timeline, conviction, rate differentials and carry

The Meeting Collision Timeline puts every upcoming decision on one axis, with larger markers flagging weeks when more than one bank decides. The Market Conviction Index scores each bank’s next meeting by how far its pricing sits from a 50/50 coin flip, from contested to settled. The Rate Differential Analyzer charts the priced spread between two banks’ over the next twelve months, or one bank against several others. The FX Carry Matrix shows the interest rate differential (carry) between each pair of the covered currencies. Each card’s ⓘ button explains how to read it.

Methodology summary

RateProbability’s figures are derived from overnight index swaps (OIS): interest rate contracts that banks, dealers and investment funds trade to hedge or take positions on where a central bank’s policy rate is headed. We combine that pricing with official policy rates and other inputs to build a meeting-by-meeting path for where the market expects the policy rate to land after each decision, along with the implied chance of a move at each one. More information is available on the methodology page.

Note: these probabilities come from OIS markets, not futures contracts. The two are closely related and typically move together, but this site’s calculations are OIS-based throughout.

Data is updated 3x per day. If the latest data is temporarily unavailable, the page shows the most recent cached values.

Important notes when comparing central banks

Central banks differ in how they implement policy and how markets express expectations. Some target a range, some set a single administered rate, and some have several key rates that move together. Meeting frequency differs too: the SNB holds four scheduled assessments a year, the RBI six, the RBNZ seven, and the other banks covered here eight, which can affect how the “speed” of priced moves shows up in the charts.

For these reasons, the compare page is best used to understand broad differences in expected direction, magnitude, and timing across regions. For bank-specific interpretation, use the individual central bank pages, which provide additional context and detail.

Who this is for

Built for macro, FX and rates traders, investors, researchers, and anyone who needs a fast, market-based read on global monetary policy, whether that’s comparing easing and tightening cycles across regions or weighing what diverging policy paths mean for bonds, FX, equities and credit.

Intended use and disclaimer

This site is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a trading signal. Market-implied expectations are uncertain and can change rapidly. Users should combine this tool with their own research and judgment, and note that estimates may differ from other sources due to differences in underlying data and methodology.