Central Bank Rate Expectations

How to read the RateProbability comparison page

RateProbability is a hub for comparing market-implied policy-rate paths across major central banks. It shows what interest-rate markets are pricing for upcoming policy meetings, expressed as an approximate rate level after each meeting and the implied amount of tightening or easing versus today. These expectations can change quickly as economic data, central-bank guidance, and financial conditions evolve.

This page is designed for a higher-level view. Rather than focusing on one central bank in depth, it lets you compare multiple banks side-by-side to see where markets are pricing cuts or hikes, how quickly those moves are expected to occur, and how expectations differ across regions.

Who this is for

This tool is useful for anyone who wants a fast, market-based read on global monetary-policy expectations. It is commonly used by macro and rates-focused investors, traders, and researchers, as well as professionals who need to monitor policy expectations as an input into decision-making.

Typical use cases include tracking how expectations change around major data releases and central-bank communication, comparing relative easing/tightening cycles across regions, and forming scenarios for how policy paths may affect assets such as bonds, FX, equities, and credit.

As a retail trader, the creator of this site has yet to unearth a rate expectations tool that is both satisfactory in scope and accessible to non-professionals. It is for this reason that RateProbability was developed.

What this page measures

The charts and table on this page reflect market pricing, not a forecast. When the site refers to “probabilities,” it is describing the likelihood implied by tradable instruments that reference future policy settings. In other words, it is a snapshot of consensus pricing that may be wrong and will often move as new information arrives.

Because central banks operate with different frameworks and policy instruments, comparisons are most useful for understanding direction and magnitude (e.g., “markets price more easing here than there”) rather than precision to the basis point.

Expected policy rate paths: Absolute

The “absolute level” chart shows the implied policy rate level after each upcoming meeting for each central bank. This is helpful for answering questions like: Where is policy currently priced to be by mid-year? How far apart are two regions’ expected policy settings? Which bank is priced to have the highest (or lowest) policy rate over the next year?

Different central banks use different headline policy rates. Some operate with a corridor or range, while others have a single administered rate. Where relevant, the tool uses a consistent “policy rate” representation for each bank so the path can be plotted over time in a comparable way.

Expected policy rate paths: Relative (Δ vs current)

The “relative” chart shows the change versus the current policy setting, measured in basis points. This makes cross-bank comparisons easier because it normalizes away differences in starting levels. It’s often the quickest way to see which central bank is priced to cut more (or hike more) over a given horizon, and how the timing of those moves compares.

Relative views are especially useful when one bank starts from a very different level than another, but markets are pricing similar amounts of easing or tightening in percentage-point terms.

Interpreting the “Upcoming meetings” table

The table summarizes the next scheduled meeting for each central bank covered on the site. Each row shows the upcoming decision date, the bank, the current policy rate reference used for that bank, and the market-implied view of the next move.

The “Probability” and “Hike/Cut” fields are best read together. They represent an approximate market-implied chance of a move at the next meeting, based on the selected step size. The “Δ vs current (bps)” field shows the cumulative implied change from today into that meeting. In other words, it answers the question: “How many basis points of hikes or cuts are priced-in between now and that meeting?”.

The “Step” control lets you choose the move size used for probability calculations (for example, 25 bps). Step size matters because markets may be pricing larger moves, smaller adjustments, or combinations of outcomes across meetings. A standard step provides a simple and consistent way to summarize pricing, but it is still an approximation.

What “probabilities” mean (and what they don’t)

The probabilities on this site are market-implied. They describe what is priced, not what will happen. Markets can overreact, underreact, or price scenarios that never occur. The goal of these probabilities is to provide a clean way to translate trading levels into an intuitive summary of expectations.

In addition, the site focuses on scheduled meetings, but policy decisions can sometimes occur outside regular meetings under extraordinary circumstances. Market pricing may also reflect expectations about communications, guidance, and balance-sheet policy even when the headline policy rate is unchanged.

Methodology summary

At a high level, the site uses interest-rate market instruments that reference future policy settings to infer an expected policy-rate path meeting-by-meeting. Those implied levels are then translated into both an absolute path (rate level) and a relative path (change versus current), along with approximate probabilities of discrete moves based on the selected step size.

Data is updated multiple times daily but is not “live”. If the most recent fetch is temporarily unavailable, the page may display the most recent cached values.

Important notes when comparing central banks

Central banks differ in how they implement policy and how markets express expectations. Some systems target a range, some use a single administered rate, and some have multiple key rates that move together. Meeting frequency and timing can also differ meaningfully across banks, which affects how “speed” of priced moves shows up in charts.

For these reasons, the comparison page is best used to understand broad differences in expected direction, magnitude, and timing across regions. For bank-specific interpretation, use the individual central-bank pages, which provide additional context and detail.

Intended use and disclaimer

This site is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a trading signal. Market-implied expectations are uncertain and can change rapidly. Users should combine this tool with their own research and judgment, and note that estimates may differ from other sources due to differences in underlying data and methodology.